Amid a number of issues affecting the food and drink supply chain, a recent survey by Lumina Intelligence revealed that a third of consumers were already thinking about buying their Christmas food and drink before the end of October.

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 British shoppers, showed that more than 50% were concerned about not being able to buy their usual quantity of Christmas food, and supermarkets have already seen a spike in frozen turkey sales as consumers protect themselves from what they perceive will be shortages closer to Christmas.

Factors driving early buying

There are several reasons why there may be shortages before the festive period. Supermarkets and food producers have been saying for a few weeks that they are anticipating some issues with supply, and have made representations to government about the problems. So, what are they?

Shortage of HGV drivers – We are all aware that there aren’t enough HGV drivers working in the UK. This means that goods are slower to move around the country and some areas struggle to get regular deliveries. Retailers including Tesco are offering a bonus to HGV drivers who join their ranks and the government has introduced a scheme to allow EU-based drivers to apply for roles here but to date, not nearly enough people have applied.

Workforce shortages – Larger food producers in the UK have historically relied on labour coming in from the EU. Both Brexit and the pandemic have seriously affected the supply of workers, meaning that some suppliers are struggling to pick and pack produce, leading to food waste and empty shelves. Those producers able to use local workforces are often smaller businesses and can’t make up completely for the reduction in supply.

Carbon dioxide problems – There was a recent shortage of carbon dioxide, which plays a crucial role in food production, including stunning animals before slaughter, keeping some foodstuffs fresh and use in fizzy drinks. The government came to a deal to plug the gap so that businesses could keep operating, and this should last into the start of 2022.

Increased costs – Whilst many foods will still be on the shelves for Christmas, consumers may find that they are paying higher prices. Prices across the board have risen – from spices to cardboard – and both suppliers and retailers will pass at least some of those extra costs onto the consumer.

All these factors, plus our desire to have everything we want for Christmas, means that there’s already significant demand. Both Waitrose and Ocado released their online Christmas shopping slots earlier than usual, with nearly all the available times booked up within a day. And supermarkets are expecting high footfall in their brick and mortar stores too, hiring thousands of additional staff to cope with demand.

Not just for Christmas…

Food issues are unlikely to be resolved once Christmas is over. There are a variety of factors, in addition to the ones we’ve mentioned, that are likely to influence the quality and supply that we’re used to in the UK food chain. So what can you do?



Now is a great time to consider buying more locally produced food that prioritises sustainability and food quality. There are plenty of ambitious, great quality UK brands around, and by choosing to shop with them, you’re moving away from a dependency on imported foods, and you’re supporting your local economy. Shop seasonally where it’s available and affordable, to help maintain a balanced and healthy diet.